Today, ICES’ Advisory Committee (ACOM) published their advice regarding the exploitation of the Baltic Sea fish stocks for 2014. It shows that four Baltic stocks are now fished at or over Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY), whereas three are still considered overfished. Of the Baltic stocks, seven are also considered data poor, resulting in higher uncertainties in the advice.
For the first time, it is proposed that the Total Allowable Catches (TACs) for sprat and the three major herring stocks are set at FMSY levels. This will result in an increase in the quota of over 40 % for the two largest herring stocks and an 11 % cut in sprat landings.
For Baltic cod, the main advice is to follow the current multi-annual management plan. A 15 % reduction is proposed for Western Baltic cod, the largest permissible under the management plan. N.B. there is a large disparity between the fishing mortality target set in the multi-annual plan (0.6) and FMSY levels (0.26).
With regard to Eastern Baltic cod, ICES proposes that the management plan is followed. This would lead to a 2 % increase in the TAC, which is estimated to facilitate a 15 % increase in the spawning stock biomass (SSB).
One significant area of concern with this year’s advice relates to the proposed shift in FMSY for Eastern Baltic cod, from F=0.3 to 0.46. The justification for the change is that ICES believes a regime shift has taken place in the stock, and have therefore shortened the time period from which they use data on the stock significantly when modelling their scenarios.
“Such a shift in the FMSY value seems incompatible with other aspects of the advice and implies that eastern Baltic cod productivity is much higher than for other cod stocks. We believe this will put the stock under increased risk, considering the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea”, says Niki Sporrong, Director at FISH.
As ICES points out regarding changes to fishing mortality, “biomass would be very different…and higher F values will have higher risks to the stock”. Moreover, yields are not expected to increase greatly with the higher levels of mortality.
The advice from ICES, along with input from the Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF), will provide the basis for the Commission proposals on fishing possibilities in the Baltic region in 2014. The Commission’s proposal should be published in mid-September. Council will then likely agree on the 2014 fishing opportunities for the Baltic in October.